What awaits Ecuador’s new President? These are the 10 most pressing issues

The incoming administration will have to outline a strategy to address the tariff measures imposed by President Donald Trump, who included Ecuador on the list of countries subject to a universal 10% base tariff on nearly all exports.

Key export products such as flowers, broccoli, and tuna have been hit hardest.

On April 9, 2025, the Ecuadorian government expressed interest in seeking a negotiated solution with the United States. However, it will be up to the new President to confirm whether Ecuador intends to move forward with talks with its main trading partner.

One of the main challenges for Ecuador’s new leader will be to secure enough legislative support in the National Assembly to pass bills proposed by the Executive. A simple majority requires at least 77 votes.

Neither Luisa González’s Citizen Revolution party, with 67 seats, nor Daniel Noboa’s National Democratic Action (ADN), with 66 seats, holds a majority on its own.

This will put pressure on the President’s ability to build coalitions with other groups, such as Pachakutik (9 seats), the Social Christian Party, and several independents—negotiations that will go beyond political ideology.

The new administration must decide whether to continue the credit agreement signed with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in April 2024.

The four-year agreement includes disbursements totaling USD 4 billion. Ecuador has already received USD 1.5 billion and could access another USD 410 million, pending the next performance review, scheduled after the election.

As part of the deal, Ecuador committed to better targeting of fuel subsidies and enacting tax reforms to boost state revenues.

Additionally, in October 2024, the country requested a new credit line from the IMF.

Addressing rising violence will be one of the President’s top priorities. In fact, 2023 and 2024 were the most violent years in Ecuador’s history based on homicide rates per 100,000 inhabitants. The country could end 2025 with a new record high.

Another major challenge will be regaining control of the prison system, which has become a hub for organized crime.

Ecuador currently holds the world’s highest rate of violent deaths in prisons, according to the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC).

Heavy rainfall helped temporarily avert blackouts in early 2025, with hydroelectric plants supplying 85% of electricity as of April. However, the risk of outages has not been fully mitigated.

A new dry season is expected to begin in October, and the thermal power projects contracted by the Noboa administration—in Quevedo, Salitral, and Esmeraldas—have yet to come online.

Cuenca’s public water utility, Etapa, also warned that the effects of drought could be felt as early as June 2025.

An imminent ruling from an international arbitration tribunal at the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague could require Ecuador to pay up to USD 2 billion to U.S. oil giant Chevron. The ruling, expected in 2025, could severely impact public finances.

The case stems from a 2011 ruling by a local judge in Sucumbíos, who ordered Chevron to pay USD 9.5 billion in environmental damages to Amazonian communities.

The original claim is related to environmental harm caused by Texaco—later acquired by Chevron in 2001—during its operations in the Ecuadorian Amazon. Chevron contends that Ecuador had released it from environmental liability.

A law passed in July 2024 set a March 2025 deadline for the government to confirm the total debt owed to the Ecuadorian Social Security Institute (IESS) and sign a 10-year repayment agreement. This has yet to happen.

According to IESS, the debt stands at a staggering USD 24.233 billion—more than double Ecuador’s projected 2025 General Budget.

Generating employment will be a critical task for the new administration.

Back in 2014, half of the employed population held adequate jobs—those paying the minimum wage and involving at least 40 hours of work per week. Since then, that rate has declined, stagnating at around 34–35% over the past four years.

Another pressing issue is youth unemployment. Among those aged 18 to 29, the jobless rate reached 9.¿,2% in 2024.

Ecuador adopted the U.S. dollar 25 years ago, but the topic resurfaced during the election campaign.

Correísta candidate Luisa González proposed using the Central Bank’s reserves—a move currently prohibited by law, as past loans from the Bank to the government weakened the dollarization system.

The main concern is that Central Bank reserves belong to third parties, including private depositors.

Oil remains a cornerstone of Ecuador’s economy, accounting for nearly 30% of public revenues and supplying domestic refineries with part of the country’s fuel needs.

Yet production has stalled, averaging 473,000 barrels per day in 2024.

By February 2025, output had already declined 4% year-on-year, and the trend is expected to continue as Ecuador proceeds with the shutdown of the ITT oil field—its largest production prospect.

Compounding the sector’s woes are environmental concerns following a recent oil spill caused by a rupture in the state-owned SOTE pipeline.